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Thin-film batteries still have competitive advantage
The world’s largest thin film solar batteries first manufacturer to 0.87 USD per watt production costs 944 million U.S. dollars in 2009 mid-term revenue and market capitalization of 12 billion U.S. dollars, breaking the bubble theory of thin-film batteries. However, the technology of thin film Laptop battery with each passing day in this market, which will eventually Swordsman, at present it is still difficult to judge. ?
For the thin film batteries have launched the project poses potential problems arising, as prices dropped polysilicon, the market there is a concern - a relatively thin crystalline silicon battery IBM 40Y6799 battery film cost advantage will be weakened, some property owners or solar power plant will turn to the use of cost is significantly reduced in the crystalline silicon batteries and their components. Manufacturers Suntech polycrystalline silicon batteries and even the bar Shi Zhengrong also argued that “thin-film solar is definitely a bubble, and short-term challenge is very great that the conversion efficiency of over 15% and costs less than 5 percent of cases, have the opportunity.
The world’s largest thin film solar battery manufacturer first (First Solar) with the financial results of striking the thin film VGP-BPS2C batteries to suppress the outside world “bubble” in the conflict. After experiencing the first quarter of 2009 fell short chain, solar energy first in the second quarter income from operations reached $ 526 million, up 97%, 26% Bizenga ring in Meanwhile, not only improved its market share and market value in the holistic V manufacturers in the first place. In crystalline silicon batteries in the context of the sharp reduction in production costs, the thin-film batteries not only has not lost market share, but under the continuous improvement of technology, to resist unit pressure drop component, will further reduce unit production costs.
Downward trend in unit costs of production
First Solar in manufacturing is almost cadmium telluride (CdTe) thin-film batteries synonyms. Since 2002, cadmium telluride thin-film BATBL50L6 batteries to reach a production volume for the first solar energy has grown at an alarming rate, production of 6.5 MW from 2004 to 2008 of 504 MW, the rate of growth compound annual 139% in 2008, was Q-Batteries in production after the second largest photovoltaic manufacturers. The first half of 2009, income from the point of view, First Solar has Yueshen global PV manufacturers.
First Solar’s competitiveness steady decline primarily on the ability to continue to reduce unit manufacturing costs. Financial data revealed that the first unit cost of producing solar energy has increased from 2004 to U.S. $ 2.94 per / watt compressed to 2008 to U.S. $ 1.08 per watt. In the photovoltaic industry turn down in the fourth quarter of 2008, First Solar energy, the average cost of production fell to 0.98 U.S. dollars per watt, the cost of production is first in the world less than U.S. $ 1 per watt of solar energy companies. In 2009, to further reduce production costs, fourth and second quarter of 0.93 U.S. dollars / W and 0.87 USD / W. First Solar, president of the public said it expects its cost of production in 2014 thin film A1045 batteries are expected to lower the U.S. $ 0.52-0.63 per watt and efficiency of opto-electronic conversion is currently 10.9% to 12.5%.
Market share, increase rather than reduce
Zhou Tao, as the Great Wall Securities Research Institute estimates that if prices of polysilicon fall to 30-40 U.S. $ / kg, corresponding thin film toshiba PA3534U-1BRS battery production cost is 1.4 U.S. dollars per watt. A leading global supplier of polysilicon (Hemlock, MEMC, Wacker, etc.) unit costs were 30 U.S. dollars / kg, far lower than the U.S. domestic 60-80 dollars / kg costs, and thus see the price of polysilicon 30 U.S. dollars / kg is almost impossible, and batteries and components of production costs, the crystalline silicon batteries is difficult to compete with thin-film batteries. In addition, thin-film batteries suitable for automated production lines, the same work required for the production of crystalline silicon is only 1 / 25, the entire production process can be completed in 3 hours, much better than performance of crystalline silicon batteries.
Thus, despite the slowdown in crystalline silicon battery silicon crystal unit to provide more competitive, but increasing market share of thin-film batteries is an indisputable fact. The data show that manufacturers thin film hp PP2182D battery from the 2000 global market share of 10.1% to 12.5% in 2008, cadmium telluride and copper indium selenide Gallium thin-film batteries (CIGS) is still most extraordinary development, the growth rate is higher than the average PV. U. S. Energy Information Administration data show that the United States and Germany markets are experiencing the same trend: in 2008, the United States, 67.5% of PV modules using thin film technology, and from the latter in 2002 from less than 10% to 2007 years, nearly 40% in the German market adoption of photovoltaic thin films are up to 20%. In fact, because the crystalline silicon batteries and modules to the declining rate of production is lower than the cost of thin-film batteries, if the market share it has increased rather than decreased over the second quarter 2009, increase the share of thin-film batteries. Media Technology Green predicted that by 2012 the capacity of thin film batteries, solar energy accounted for 30% of total capacity.
Gross margin data also showed that the component units of the erosion of selling prices, solar energy first is almost not affected profitability. The fourth quarter of 2008, the first decline in short-term gross margin of solar BATCL50L energy, the two following quarters, gross margins have started to rebound in the first quarter of 2009, and in the second quarter reached a record high respectively.
However, because of differences between the two applications (crystalline silicon batteries in the solar roofs program has advantages, thin film batteries and photovoltaic power plant construction in large scale integration (BIVP) project is an advantage) industry and First Solar thin-film batteries is still “in a big” do not upgrade from the basic large-scale industry, so that a large-scale thin-film batteries will not replace crystalline silicon batteries.
Win in Chernical
Thin-part battery of the film market in the past, the steady increase is primarily attributable to the contribution of solar energy first. From a commercial point of view of the operation, the first solar energy is currently the only operating large-scale commercial manufacturers on a thin film Dell KD186 battery. 2008 shares of market thin-film batteries, the first account of solar energy for Liu Cheng. However, the rapid development of technology thin-film battery, in addition to the hands of the first solar thin film technology cadmium telluride battery, there are still two major types of thin battery technology of film production: the thin film silicon technology (such as a-Si) selenide and copper indium gallium thin-film technology.
Just the transformation efficiency perspective, the CIGS considerable advantage, in theory, the maximum effective rate of 19.9%, much higher than the 16.9% of cadmium telluride and silicon 12.8 %. Despite its raw materials, indium (In) is rarer, the world reserves are about 2 million tonnes, to 400 GW of 40Y6795 batteries available for use, but because of the current global CIGS few Manufacturers of batteries, and in 2010 the production capacity of 300 MW, the 14 tons of Indium be much lower than existing materials, the production of indium, the short-term reserves of the problem and not restrict the prospects of CIGS batteries.
From a cost perspective, the securities that although the price has dropped crystalline silicon, CIGS remain competitive prices. First, as CIGS batteries have not yet reached the volume of production, through the low cost of the demolition, taking into account the process similar to the cost of the membership of First Solar (primarily the depreciation of equipment, glass, materials and labor, etc.), and as a result of large-scale CIGS thin-film hp Pavilion dv6000 battery cost is about $ 1.07 U.S. per watt, well below the current cost of batteries crystalline silicon. Secondly, the CIGS batteries use glass substrates relatively inexpensive, such as rare elements needed for a significant reduction in the amount of wear effects In addition, the CIGS batteries better low light on the light requirements reduced Running time is much higher than the crystalline silicon batteries.
While the less efficient silicon-based photoelectric conversion thin-film batteries, because of unstable performance, the path of future development depends on technological progress. At The Great Wall Securities Zhou Tao seems, because of its key raw silane (SiH4) easily accessible, suitable for mass production, so if the conversion efficiency can be stabilized at 10% or more, will have a significant competitive advantage.
Four major risks that must not be ignored
In the eyes of all, Huizhou Wei Li at 100 million euros Co., Ltd. (100 million energy Li Wei), President and CEO Jin-Cheng Liu is a typical combination of TSA and head capital. Born in 1964, Jin-Sheng Liu has a doctoral degree can be considered the first of the few companies listed on the GEM Ph.D. boss.
Huizhou is a paradise for Liu Jin-cheng, the achievements of Jin-Sheng Liu career. It is in Huizhou, LIU Jin-Cheng has also completed its own experts to master the jump.
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Wei-Li can be implemented at the Laptop battery beginning 100 million of capital of 300 million Hong Kong dollars to set up nine years after 9 reconstruction, two Equity Transfer, the formation of two shares of capital funds Zhuanzeng the Current shareholding structure at the IPO in 2009, the company Share capital 66 million yuan.
According to the prospectus disclosure firm, this pre-release of Jin-Sheng Liu, and Luo Jin-hong couple held 50% in Huizhou City, 100 million Wei Industrial Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “100 million Wei Industrial “), holds 60.66% stake of the majority shareholder. In addition, LIU Jin-cheng in this pre-release has a direct 4.28% stake, Luo Jin-hong in this pre-release issue has 7.17% directly in the business. The actions of a total of 4.75943 billion shares. 18 yuan per share issue price of its shares held by the corresponding market value of 856.6974 million yuan.
In fact, since 2001, when he was Vice-President Jin-Cheng Liu energy Desai will be with IBM ThinkPad X60 battery his wife Jin-Hong Luo how to keep track of their parents, developed by the company, the company has created joint venture with a third may be the predecessor of 100 million Li-Wei - - Huizhou Jin Electronics Co., Ltd..
September 22, 2002, Jin reach 100 million name change for industries supplying weft Huizhou Power Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “weft supply 100 million). April 10, 2005, 100 million Frame Power Board adopted a resolution to order the company will own 100 million of its 74% stake in power transfer frame to 100 million industrial Wei. The same day, with 100 million through Wei Industrial Co., have signed a “contract on transfer of equity.”
August 6, 2007, Jin-Sheng Liu, and Luo Jin-hong his wife took over the holdings of 100 million Hong Kong Jin Wei provide up to 26% participation. So far, 100 million of power by Jin-Sheng Liu Wei, Luo Jin-hong-owned by married couples.
August 21, 2007, operators have already begun to take shape weft supply 100 million vision to attract strategic investors, the company has registered capital of a premium the way for the introduction of strategic investors, making it the Dell Inspiron 1420 battery capital of 12.15 million to 1.482 billion yuan, LIU Jin-cheng and Luo Jin-hong couple also managed to obtain capital from the company before scoring the first jump. Accumulated amounts of capital the company has reached 42.15 million yuan, net Jin-Cheng Liu, and Luo Jin-hong couple initial capital of 12.15 million yuan, the capital appreciation rate 246.91%.
Among them, science and technology investment in order to subscribe in cash 10 million yuan of registered capital of 890,000 yuan to the letter the morning of fiscal cash to subscribe for five million yuan registered capital of 440,000 yuan. An individual is also the managers of the company NING Ping subscribe in cash 13 million yuan of registered capital of 1.16 million yuan, Chen Weiqiang 2 million yuan in cash subscribed capital of 180,000 yuan.
At this point, Jin-Sheng Liu, and Luo Jin-hong couple pairs of weft supply 100 million contribution 81.98%, external strategic investors holding 18.02 percent.
In September 2007, 100 million Wei Li may be made hp PP2182L battery before recording the first round of equity incentives. Among them, LIU Jin-cheng 8.81% stake in the company were transferred to Liu Jianhua, Guo Feng, and 10 other people physically, Luo Jin-hong 1.08% stake in the company were transferred to Dong-Sheng Yu, Jian-Kang Qing 23 individuals, the transfer price is 1 Yuan.
In October 2007, 100 million to provide the frame of a Limited changed everything. October 15, 2007, 100 million frame provide all shareholders have signed the “Wei Li Company Limited, Huizhou 100 million sponsorship agreement” took place the same day to the creation of 100 million Li Wei-General Assembly .
Wei-Li can be implemented because 100 million of equity incentives held by the company management is also listed on the big gains, nearly half the staff of the equity incentive management will become millionaire or billionaire. If the sony VGP-BPS2 battery Deputy Director General Liu Jianhua company, the company secretaries to the Directorate had clouds float 216.44 million shares, respectively, and 5.41 million shares, according to prices of 18 of Issue cases, the corresponding market value of 38.9592 million yuan, respectively, and 973.8 thousand yuan.
Competitors is its own
As an expert-type boss, Jin-Sheng Liu Wei-Li 100 million under the direction of the primary lithium battery from China can (especially the lithium thionyl chloride batteries) into a new level. LIU Jin-cheng Pro-Ren “, Guangdong Province, Li-Ion Battery Engineering Technology Research and Development Center, the post of director to head a team of four doctoral and master’s directed several R & D team has won the lithium-R & D and industrialization in the process of the various problems of developing a national initiative to place a coin and other special-type lithium thionyl chloride batteries.
Currently, the company, under the sub field in lithium-innovation capacity, product performance and other aspects of the core competitive advantage (310368, funds bar ) that the toshiba PA3534U-1BRS battery scope of this segment of domestic firms to become market leader in China’s largest and the fifth high-energy world primary lithium battery supplier.
“The domestic competition is ours.” LIU Jin-cheng said.
Company project sponsors Hongta Securities Airlines Yao said business growth is mainly manifested in two aspects: First, external factors, the business major industries upstream and downstream such as smart meters, RFID, automotive electronics and other industries have a clear, fast-growing space; Secondly, in terms of internal factors, the company has a strong ability to innovate, to develop a comprehensive system of intellectual property, and a market already well-founded and status. These key factors which determined the next apple MacBook 13 inch battery few years, be able to maintain good growth.
However, compared to manufacturers well known abroad, the company is still relatively small, and because due to the weakness of automation products, consistency and there is a certain gap between the leading manufacturers in the world. Company also may say that its production process is mainly semi-automatic, can not form a complete automation, industrialization and production scale, production scale, product consistency can not fully satisfy the needs of major clients, the international movement. From now on, the company’s products in the United States instrument Intelligent lithium battery market share in Asia is only 3% -5%, the European market share of only 2%.
In recent years, despite the internal lithium-battery production manganese and sales scale of growth companies, but the Aspire 3000 battery products are mainly intended for the average of the low end market, intense competition in manufacturing, quality and consistency, production scale, with foreign brands and there is a difference.
The data indicate that the current global context, the high-end lithium-manganese battery from the market more than 70% by Japan, Germany, the brand occupied. Among them, SAFT France, Israel TADIRAN combined share of world market of lithium batteries is approximately 80% of Asia’s share of the United States occupy Ultralife lithium 9V lithium manganese Dell D5318 battery manganese and soft-about 90% of market share, Sanyo, Panasonic, Ell, Sony, Germany VARTA high-end companies such as lithium manganese battery market, the main leader. Wei Li from 100 million to its market share of about 3% -5%.
In addition, Jin-Sheng Liu laments, sector lithium batteries is a technology intensive industry, industry of the relative scarcity of technical personnel can continue to train professionals, R & D and making international competition upscale, high value added products for corporate sustainability.
The four risks can not be ignored
Although 100 million of Wei Li could have been a domestic high-energy lithium battery market leader, researcher Guotai Junan Wang Zhen always reminds investors of the Company’s four major risks can not be ignored.
First, the project had raised the investment risk. The project investment capital raised is put into production, the company will add lithium production capacity in Asia and 18 million batteries, lithium manganese 22 million. Had raised the offer to increase production capacity more than doubled. In the short term business lithium products are currently the main supplier for the smart metering, etc., if the hp Pavilion dv2000 battery company’s products in downstream adverse changes in market demand, or measures of market development does not receive better implementation, the company may face additional capacity to digest, profitability, lowering the impact on net income risk.
Second, technology can not be maintained in the risk of progress. Top rely on technology leadership and reach the international advanced level, the company achieved rapid growth and to maintain continuity and stability of income. Ultimately can not be achieved if the toshiba PA3395U-1BRS battery company continued technological progress, and maintain the advanced international level, indicators of business performance will be back, and cost advantages would be lost, the high value added market is delayed, the company’s competitiveness and profitability would be eroded.
Thirdly, the risk of debtors. The last three years, the size of the company’s accounts receivable and sales as the size of cell growth and rapid expansion, due to large claims and small clients and groups and increases the bottom right of the growing demand for smart meters high energy batteries accounts, extended by the period, leading to significant growth in net accounts receivable.
Fourthly, the inventory risk. The last three years the apple MacBook Pro 15 inch battery stock size of 44.2621 million yuan from the end of 2006 increased to 2008 to the end of 50.0778 million yuan, a growth rate of 13.14%. In comparison with the main income, the amount of more inventory, but also with seasonal sales. Since the inventory is greater if the company is not able to improve production planning and rational management of inventory management, digest Timely stocks may generate stock price decline hysteresis and pressure stocks, and therefore the company a negative impact on production and management.