Digital battery

The world’s largest thin film solar batteries first manufacturer to 0.87 USD per watt production costs 944 million U.S. dollars in 2009 mid-term revenue and market capitalization of 12 billion U.S. dollars, breaking the bubble theory of thin-film batteries. However, the technology of thin film Laptop battery with each passing day in this market, which will eventually Swordsman, at present it is still difficult to judge. ?

 

For the thin film batteries have launched the project poses potential problems arising, as prices dropped polysilicon, the market there is a concern - a relatively thin crystalline silicon battery IBM 40Y6799 battery film cost advantage will be weakened, some property owners or solar power plant will turn to the use of cost is significantly reduced in the crystalline silicon batteries and their components. Manufacturers Suntech polycrystalline silicon batteries and even the bar Shi Zhengrong also argued that “thin-film solar is definitely a bubble, and short-term challenge is very great that the conversion efficiency of over 15% and costs less than 5 percent of cases, have the opportunity.

 

The world’s largest thin film solar battery manufacturer first (First Solar) with the financial results of striking the thin film VGP-BPS2C batteries to suppress the outside world “bubble” in the conflict. After experiencing the first quarter of 2009 fell short chain, solar energy first in the second quarter income from operations reached $ 526 million, up 97%, 26% Bizenga ring in Meanwhile, not only improved its market share and market value in the holistic V manufacturers in the first place. In crystalline silicon batteries in the context of the sharp reduction in production costs, the thin-film batteries not only has not lost market share, but under the continuous improvement of technology, to resist unit pressure drop component, will further reduce unit production costs.

 

Downward trend in unit costs of production

 

First Solar in manufacturing is almost cadmium telluride (CdTe) thin-film batteries synonyms. Since 2002, cadmium telluride thin-film BATBL50L6 batteries to reach a production volume for the first solar energy has grown at an alarming rate, production of 6.5 MW from 2004 to 2008 of 504 MW, the rate of growth compound annual 139% in 2008, was Q-Batteries in production after the second largest photovoltaic manufacturers. The first half of 2009, income from the point of view, First Solar has Yueshen global PV manufacturers.

 

First Solar’s competitiveness steady decline primarily on the ability to continue to reduce unit manufacturing costs. Financial data revealed that the first unit cost of producing solar energy has increased from 2004 to U.S. $ 2.94 per / watt compressed to 2008 to U.S. $ 1.08 per watt. In the photovoltaic industry turn down in the fourth quarter of 2008, First Solar energy, the average cost of production fell to 0.98 U.S. dollars per watt, the cost of production is first in the world less than U.S. $ 1 per watt of solar energy companies. In 2009, to further reduce production costs, fourth and second quarter of 0.93 U.S. dollars / W and 0.87 USD / W. First Solar, president of the public said it expects its cost of production in 2014 thin film A1045 batteries are expected to lower the U.S. $ 0.52-0.63 per watt and efficiency of opto-electronic conversion is currently 10.9% to 12.5%.

 

Market share, increase rather than reduce

 

Zhou Tao, as the Great Wall Securities Research Institute estimates that if prices of polysilicon fall to 30-40 U.S. $ / kg, corresponding thin film toshiba PA3534U-1BRS battery production cost is 1.4 U.S. dollars per watt. A leading global supplier of polysilicon (Hemlock, MEMC, Wacker, etc.) unit costs were 30 U.S. dollars / kg, far lower than the U.S. domestic 60-80 dollars / kg costs, and thus see the price of polysilicon 30 U.S. dollars / kg is almost impossible, and batteries and components of production costs, the crystalline silicon batteries is difficult to compete with thin-film batteries. In addition, thin-film batteries suitable for automated production lines, the same work required for the production of crystalline silicon is only 1 / 25, the entire production process can be completed in 3 hours, much better than performance of crystalline silicon batteries.

 

Thus, despite the slowdown in crystalline silicon battery silicon crystal unit to provide more competitive, but increasing market share of thin-film batteries is an indisputable fact. The data show that manufacturers thin film hp PP2182D battery from the 2000 global market share of 10.1% to 12.5% in 2008, cadmium telluride and copper indium selenide Gallium thin-film batteries (CIGS) is still most extraordinary development, the growth rate is higher than the average PV. U. S. Energy Information Administration data show that the United States and Germany markets are experiencing the same trend: in 2008, the United States, 67.5% of PV modules using thin film technology, and from the latter in 2002 from less than 10% to 2007 years, nearly 40% in the German market adoption of photovoltaic thin films are up to 20%. In fact, because the crystalline silicon batteries and modules to the declining rate of production is lower than the cost of thin-film batteries, if the market share it has increased rather than decreased over the second quarter 2009, increase the share of thin-film batteries. Media Technology Green predicted that by 2012 the capacity of thin film batteries, solar energy accounted for 30% of total capacity.

 

Gross margin data also showed that the component units of the erosion of selling prices, solar energy first is almost not affected profitability. The fourth quarter of 2008, the first decline in short-term gross margin of solar BATCL50L energy, the two following quarters, gross margins have started to rebound in the first quarter of 2009, and in the second quarter reached a record high respectively.

 

However, because of differences between the two applications (crystalline silicon batteries in the solar roofs program has advantages, thin film batteries and photovoltaic power plant construction in large scale integration (BIVP) project is an advantage) industry and First Solar thin-film batteries is still “in a big” do not upgrade from the basic large-scale industry, so that a large-scale thin-film batteries will not replace crystalline silicon batteries.

 

Win in Chernical

 

Thin-part battery of the film market in the past, the steady increase is primarily attributable to the contribution of solar energy first. From a commercial point of view of the operation, the first solar energy is currently the only operating large-scale commercial manufacturers on a thin film Dell KD186 battery. 2008 shares of market thin-film batteries, the first account of solar energy for Liu Cheng. However, the rapid development of technology thin-film battery, in addition to the hands of the first solar thin film technology cadmium telluride battery, there are still two major types of thin battery technology of film production: the thin film silicon technology (such as a-Si) selenide and copper indium gallium thin-film technology.

 

Just the transformation efficiency perspective, the CIGS considerable advantage, in theory, the maximum effective rate of 19.9%, much higher than the 16.9% of cadmium telluride and silicon 12.8 %. Despite its raw materials, indium (In) is rarer, the world reserves are about 2 million tonnes, to 400 GW of 40Y6795 batteries available for use, but because of the current global CIGS few Manufacturers of batteries, and in 2010 the production capacity of 300 MW, the 14 tons of Indium be much lower than existing materials, the production of indium, the short-term reserves of the problem and not restrict the prospects of CIGS batteries.

 

From a cost perspective, the securities that although the price has dropped crystalline silicon, CIGS remain competitive prices. First, as CIGS batteries have not yet reached the volume of production, through the low cost of the demolition, taking into account the process similar to the cost of the membership of First Solar (primarily the depreciation of equipment, glass, materials and labor, etc.), and as a result of large-scale CIGS thin-film hp Pavilion dv6000 battery cost is about $ 1.07 U.S. per watt, well below the current cost of batteries crystalline silicon. Secondly, the CIGS batteries use glass substrates relatively inexpensive, such as rare elements needed for a significant reduction in the amount of wear effects In addition, the CIGS batteries better low light on the light requirements reduced Running time is much higher than the crystalline silicon batteries.

 

While the less efficient silicon-based photoelectric conversion thin-film batteries, because of unstable performance, the path of future development depends on technological progress. At The Great Wall Securities Zhou Tao seems, because of its key raw silane (SiH4) easily accessible, suitable for mass production, so if the conversion efficiency can be stabilized at 10% or more, will have a significant competitive advantage.