Risk analysis of thin-film solar batteries
1, high-profit event
U.S. First Solar’s gross margins above 50%, but such a high gross margin because the company has a core of cadmium telluride thin film technology and its equipment are mostly self-designed, proprietary technology, so their cost than most solar companies is much lower. From the breakdown of costs can be verified that, although First Solar equipment depreciation for 5 years, compared with the other producers have AMAT Applied Materials, Inc. 7 years shorter, but still higher than the depreciation expense of the unity of the amorphous silicon plant AMAT more than 20% lower than the AMAT of the laminated product is 40% or more. First Solar thin-film producers all over the world, a good benchmark, but it’s amazing the goal is not easily available, and the general activities des
2, technical risk concerns
Due to rapid technological progress, the average price of polysilicon components from the current level of $ 4 / W by 2012, two U.S. dollars / W; thin-film batteries from the current $ 2 / W to $ 1 / W, the thin-film makes solar production capacity could reach 20% of the total solar energy, is now only 7.6%. Thin-film solar sony VGP-BPS2A battery technology must be improved, for example, need to improve the existing microcrystalline silicon coating because the thickness of the microcrystalline silicon solar impact performance. Thin-film solar batteries to do is thin, the conversion rate to improve a significant reduction in thickness to reduce production costs and other metrics. Most of the province of silicon thin-film battery is using a special process that continued gas with silicon deposited on glass carriers can form a layer of paved with nano-scale particles of silicon film as a piece of glass, with an area of up to 1 square meter, or even a few square meters. The thin-film solar batteries in the same size on the weaker power generation capacity than conventional batteries, photoelectric efficiency of only about 6%. Chinese Academy of Sciences Guangzhou Institute of Energy, according to recent forecasts by the year 2015 this number will increase due to technical advances by 12% to 16%. The world’s most advanced ion-beam deposition of nano-crystalline silicon thin-film technology, China is still empty. Crystalline silicon batteries with very different production technology is widely in manufacturing thin-film battery, like the semiconductor industry, such as vacuum coating technology, key technology have used this level of mastery and advanced directly to the volume of products affected income, indirect impact on the profitability of the company. Thin-film battery industry is a technological innovation on the rapid development of industry is based has been built is to explore one of the best process route too, so the need for continued improvement from the technology point of view thin-film sony VGP-BPS2 battery factory, manufacturers of crystalline silicon solar batteries are producing more need for a strong R & D and technical team. From a technical originality, digest and absorb and re-raise three are usually standards, Chinese companies are only in the most important independent intellectual property rights of long term in a weak position. If you can not catch up, then the thin-film solar batteries has continued to migrate to the “Introduction, backwards, then the introduction of” passive follow the trend of the old road, not in a position to the chain from production to sales of high End-to-fill.
3, equipment and raw materials short board
Thin-film battery technology development is shorter forms, no common technology and common equipment, the latest large-format thin-film VGP-BPS9/S battery devices offers a turnkey project is primarily the United States, Applied Materials (AMAT), Switzerland, Oerlikon and Japan’s ULVAC 3rd Equipment depreciation is one of the major costs of thin-film batteries, according to the current stock market listing, with the capacity of the battery production line of thin-film silicon prices are 6-10 times, including glass (glass and other conductive glass), EVA, Target and Gas and other important raw material supply, the current international giants are monopolies, high prices and no supply. ITO thin-film batteries require a higher current strength of weak domestic manufacturers, the market especially from Japan, NSG and the U.S. AFG partition. With the outbreak of the domestic production of thin-film batteries to supply most likely the result of the main raw material. Target current domestic supply, which is dominated by large international companies, Heraeus, Germany is the world’s largest supplier on the domestic market share of more than 6 in. Moreover, there is no domestic production of silane, but mainly large international companies with limited expansion opportunities as demand for LCD and other high silane is coupled partial delivery is still in short supply, prices continue to rise to maintain a high level does not exclude the possibility silicon thin films face Queliao risk. In addition, the thin-film cadmium telluride (CdTe) materials, there are still concerns about the toxicity, environmental protection and recovery mechanisms, tellurium supply mechanism hidden dangers, copper-indium-selenium (CTS CIGS) materials, it is the question of indium prices.
4, the market risk
Everything that is divided into two halves, and look at problems of the market, there must be an objective analysis of dialectical materialism. The great development of the photovoltaic industry, leading to rising prices of key raw material silicon, and finally forced to alternatives to the downstream business, believe it promoted the rapid development of thin-film technology on a very large number of companies find that they have a Starfall, crystalline silicon solar technology found pregnancy dive with a great breakthrough in the pricing on the eve of a sharp. This result is still at the level of the small thin-film Dell Inspiron 8500 battery market and the strong momentum of development will be the impact of changes in market investors form must be fully understood, otherwise errors can occur.
5, risks of investing in
Currently, Chinese companies have much in the introduction of foreign monopoly, invested thin film solar battery production lines. Three giants of the world, one of the United States, Applied Materials, Inc. amorphous silicon thin film solar modules to produce a series of automatic production line, for instance, to project a total investment of 14 billion yuan, annual production of amorphous silicon thin film solar batteries 500MW, with an annual turnover of 20 billion yuan. Investment intensity per megawatt of production capacity by 2800 or 28 million yuan RMB per watt, a turnover of 40 million yuan to invest grid / MW, or 40 yuan / W. This easy-to tens of billions of investment risk should be carefully examined. Switzerland and Europe Likang automatic production line of thin-film hp PP2182L battery prices of imports of 100 million yuan dollar, combined 700 million yuan. In addition, the production process is environmental issues will consume a large amount of investment in environmental protection department or face opposition.
6, financial difficulties
Solar PV industry is a money-burning industries, the financing capability of a large company test. But the most dangerous place, but also risky places, is from a philosophical standpoint, the greater the risk, the greater the chances. In other words, there is no opportunity without risk. The wind is now that my votes. With minimal investment to earn the greatest profit, is the eternal view venture capitalists, but also the strategic goal of the philosopher, the two differ only pure venture capitalists will benefit as a goal. Investors on the financing side of the evaluation criteria are mainly two first the profitability of enterprises, followed by the scale. In addition, enterprise system, corporate culture, team composition, executives and others have an assessment. Standing at a higher level view of these questions, we will have time to go see the industry that has little relationship, because the key to see the VGP-BPS10 results. First come, the current environment, then there are other problems can not be generalized.
Our answers:
1. R & D and commercialization of solar PV companies should also focus on understanding the two. Accurate select the entry point to participate partially in control of the situation with the strategy, both in accordance with national conditions, also in line with the best economic option because the lowest price to produce the best results are always the best choice for investment. “Power wins very brave man to win power disparity wise man.” Achieve control of the situation, do so by local targets, the need for more intelligence to this, because it requires a global vision of a comprehensive strategy, intelligence and strategic courage. People who can not fearful strategy for winning the top spot because it is often the most dangerous, but also the balance of power in force. Big bet on solar PV by the “technology innovation and lower costs” that two keys so that the cost of solar power for the next generation of 0.5 yuan per kWh on the price and VGP-BPS9/B thermal energy equivalent to a strong competitive advantage to connect on the market to the premise of the initiative to regulate the use of large scale, when promoting the market demand burst like a blow-out type, solar batteries on board from the current use of additional alternative energy peak.
2. Although the same time, faced with a shortage of materials, technology development, leading talent and its own challenges, such as intellectual property rights very short, but we are committed to their own multi-level research and development team, construct addition, it should with Applied Materials to work as the United States, Japan, ULVAC, Switzerland, Oerlikon thin-film battery technology world, such as monopoly giants technology alliance, which is a good strategic decision.
3. Japan’s Sharp Corporation developed a prototype solar batteries on gallium arsenide ingots, has its photoelectric conversion rate reached 25-28.5%, according to the story of Sharp, an energy efficiency approaching 30% can have a prototype product, when the actual efficiency of production is very up to 20%. Who is the first to master the advanced technology, who reflects the lead in industrialization, the first to the photovoltaic industry, “high growth, high investment, high output” properties.
4. Production of photovoltaic power in China today is not simply the application of power, short-term needs the support of the international market, but the long-term strategic perspective, the domestic market is a strong resource can not be ignored. Together with the opening of the domestic solar PV market approaching footsteps, “staking their claims,” floating on the operation of the tactical turn table. Need as quickly as possible sunshine intensity of the former government signed a joint construction of three solar power plant demonstration project cooperation agreements for the construction and application of solar energy, local governments, or if the BATBL50L6 technologies and products ready to promote the market have been divided since a long time.